The Academy Awards telecast airs in just two days: Sunday night at 8 p.m. on ABC. The producers have promised a new approach to the ceremony to make it less, uh, boring for all the non-Oscar fanatics — starting with hiring Hugh Jackman to host and hiding the list of all-star celebrity presenters — but as for the awards themselves, in order to prepare for those Oscar pools (or maybe just to impress your friends), here are foolproof predictions that you can take to the bank.
Overall it’s going to be a Slumdog Millionaire night — the film is all but assured to win Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. As for Best Actress, Kate Winslet seems to have it pretty locked up for her performance in The Reader — beating the two frontrunners from before she was in the race, Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway.
Don’t listen to everybody telling you Mickey Rourke is a lock to win Best Actor. In 2003, everybody wanted Bill Murray to win, but the award ended up going to — yep — Sean Penn. Look for a repeat here, this time for Penn’s performance in Milk. Milk will also most likely win Best Original Screenplay, although that category has perhaps the best chance for a surprise winner to sneak through.
Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor unless the Academy really screws things up — and they already did by not nominating The Dark Knight for Best Picture, so anything’s possible. For Supporting Actress, Penelope Cruz is the default frontrunner now that Kate Winslet’s in the Lead category. One of the women from Doubt — Viola Davis or Amy Adams — may have an outside chance for an upset, but more likely they’ll end up canceling each other out.
Finally, Wall-E will take Best Animated Feature, Waltz with Bashir should win Best Foreign Film, and Man on Wire is likely to win Best Documentary.
Feel free to send us a thank-you note when you win your pool, or alternately, 50% of the winnings.
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